Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 52.13%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 18.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 0-1 with a probability of 19.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.17%) and 1-2 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.31%), while for a South Sudan win it was 1-0 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Uganda in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Uganda.