Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ghana win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ghana win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.16%) and 1-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Uganda win was 1-0 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.