Friendlies 3

Oct 13, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade 26 Mars

Mali
1 - 0
Uganda

Sinayoko (73' pen.)
(65')

FT(HT: 1-0)

(73'), (78')

Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 3 clash between Mali and Uganda.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Last Game: Mali 4-0 South Sudan
Friday, September 8 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Uganda

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Niger 0-2 Uganda
Thursday, September 7 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Egypt	3	5	9
2	Uganda	3	0	4
3	Congo DR	3	0	3
4	Zimbabwe	3	-5	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 61.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Uganda had a probability of 13.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.35%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.6%), while for a Uganda win it was 0-1 (6.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 18.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mali in this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	Uganda
61.6% ( -0.16)	24.9% ( 0.01)	13.51% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 34.92% (

0.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.48% (

0.2)

63.52% (

-0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.16% (

0.14)

82.84% (

-0.14)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.25% (

0.02)

20.75% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.61% (

0.03)

53.39% (

-0.03)

Uganda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.06% (

0.37)

55.94% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.57% (

0.21)

88.43% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Mali 61.59%

Uganda 13.51%

Draw 24.88%

Mali	Draw	Uganda
1-0 @ 18.25% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 14.35% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 7.52% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.88% Total : 61.59%	0-0 @ 11.6% ( -0.09) 1-1 @ 10.6% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.88%	0-1 @ 6.74% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.72% Total : 13.51%