African Nations Championship | Group Stage

Jan 16, 2023 at 4pm UK

New Suez Stadium

Mali
3 - 3
Angola

Sinayoko (23'), Diaby (78'), Coulibaly (83')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Depu (12', 26'), Gilberto (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's African Nations Championship clash between Mali and Angola, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Last Game: Algeria 1-1 Mali
Wednesday, November 16 at 7.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Angola

All competitions

Last Game: South Africa 1-1 Angola
Sunday, November 20 at 1pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	4	7
2	Tunisia	3	0	3
3	Angola	3	-1	2
4	Mauritania	3	-3	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 56.29%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Angola had a probability of 16.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.82%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.31%), while for an Angola win it was 0-1 (8.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	Angola
56.29% ( 0.4)	26.91% ( -0.2)	16.8% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 36.56% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.89% (

0.34)

65.11% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.03% (

0.24)

83.96% (

-0.24)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.38% (

0.32)

23.62% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.3% (

0.47)

57.7% (

-0.47)

Angola Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.87% (

-0.05)

52.13% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.91% (

-0.03)

86.09% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Mali 56.28%

Angola 16.8%

Draw 26.9%

Mali	Draw	Angola
1-0 @ 17.76% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 12.82% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.02% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.18% Total : 56.28%	0-0 @ 12.31% ( -0.15) 1-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.3% Total : 26.9%	0-1 @ 8.02% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 3.77% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.4% Total : 16.8%