Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2023 at 7pm UK

Mali
2 - 0
Gambia

Doumbia (3'), Traore (90+5' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-0)

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Mali and Gambia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Mauritania 1-0 Mali
Tuesday, January 24 at 4pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Gambia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-0 Gambia
Sunday, November 20 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 63.81%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 10.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 21.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.03%) and 3-0 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.97%), while for a Gambia win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	Gambia
63.81% ( 0.01)	25.35% ( 0.12)	10.85% ( -0.13)

Both teams to score 28.42% (

-0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

31.45% (

-0.49)

68.55% (

0.49)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

13.7% (

-0.33)

86.3% (

0.33)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.01% (

-0.21)

21.99% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.7% (

-0.32)

55.3% (

0.32)

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

36.43% (

-0.54)

63.57% (

0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

7.63% (

-0.25)

92.37% (

0.25)

Score Analysis

Mali 63.8%

Gambia 10.85%

Draw 25.34%

Mali	Draw	Gambia
1-0 @ 21.17% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 16.03% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 3.67% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 63.8%	0-0 @ 13.97% ( 0.25) 1-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.34%	0-1 @ 6.33% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.91% Total : 10.85%