Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 47.53%. A win for South Sudan had a probability of 27.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.28%). The likeliest South Sudan win was 1-0 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Mali in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Mali.