Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 53.51%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 23.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.76%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-2 (6.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.