Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 37.46%. A draw had a probability of 32.9% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 29.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.8%) and 1-2 (6.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.74%), while for a Mauritania win it was 1-0 (13.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood.