Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritania win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Libya had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mauritania win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Libya win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mauritania would win this match.