Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 28, 2023 at 5pm UK

Independence Stadium

Gambia
1 - 0
Mali

Colley (79')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Gambia and Mali.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gambia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Mali 2-0 Gambia
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Mali

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Mali 2-0 Gambia
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 52.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 19.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.59%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Gambia win it was 1-0 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.

Result
Gambia	Draw	Mali
19.63% ( -0.15)	27.45% ( 0.05)	52.92% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 39.32% (

-0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.13% (

-0.26)

63.87% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.91% (

-0.19)

83.09% (

0.18)

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.12% (

-0.32)

47.88% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.86% (

-0.24)

83.14% (

0.24)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.44% (

-0.07)

24.56% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.95% (

-0.1)

59.04% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Gambia 19.63%

Mali 52.92%

Draw 27.45%

Gambia	Draw	Mali
1-0 @ 8.66% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.48% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 3.19% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.21% Total : 19.63%	1-1 @ 12.16% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.76% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.39% Total : 27.45%	0-1 @ 16.51% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 11.59% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 5.42% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 4% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.9% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 52.92%