Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 45.88%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Tanzania had a probability of 25.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 2-1 (8.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Tanzania win it was 0-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.