Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudan win with a probability of 43.46%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 27.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudan win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.95%) and 1-2 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a South Sudan win it was 1-0 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sudan would win this match.