Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kenya win with a probability of 46.68%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 26.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a South Sudan win it was 0-1 (9.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.