Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 74.54%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 8.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.18%) and 3-0 (11.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.95%), while for a Kenya win it was 0-1 (3.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.