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Africa Cup of Nations

South Sudan national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 14, 2023 at 2pm UK
Suez Canal University Stadium
Gambia national football team

South Sudan
2 - 3
Gambia

Yuel (21'), Chol (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Angier (4' og.), Jallow (62'), Barry (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between South Sudan and Gambia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

South Sudan

Last Game: South Sudan 0-1 Congo
Monday, March 27 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Gambia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Gambia 1-0 Mali
Tuesday, March 28 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 56.35%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 17.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.4%) and 1-2 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a South Sudan win it was 1-0 (7.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gambia would win this match.

Result
South SudanDrawGambia
17.51% (0.012 0.01)26.14% (0.012 0.01)56.35% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Both teams to score 39.32% (-0.012 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.89% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)62.11% (0.023000000000003 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.18% (-0.019000000000002 -0.02)81.82% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
South Sudan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.6% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)49.4% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.76%84.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Gambia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.7% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)22.3% (0.022000000000002 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.24% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)55.75% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    South Sudan 17.51%
    Gambia 56.33%
    Draw 26.13%
South SudanDrawGambia
1-0 @ 7.77% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
2-1 @ 4.11% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 2.74% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 0.97%
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 17.51%
1-1 @ 11.65%
0-0 @ 11.01% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.09% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 26.13%
0-1 @ 16.52%
0-2 @ 12.4%
1-2 @ 8.75% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-3 @ 6.21% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.38% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-4 @ 2.33% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.54% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 56.33%

How you voted: South Sudan vs Gambia

South Sudan
16.7%
Draw
13.3%
Gambia
70.0%
30
Head to Head
Jun 4, 2022 5pm
Group Stage
Gambia
1-0
South Sudan
Jallow (45+4')

Emmanuel Kundu Gama (45'), Malish Manase (90+1'), Maker Manyang Mabok (90+2')
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