Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 56.79%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 18.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.82%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Kenya win it was 0-1 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.