Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haiti win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Qatar had a probability of 36.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haiti win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Qatar win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Haiti in this match.