Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Qatar had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest Qatar win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.