Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 31.23% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.77%) and 2-1 (7.67%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (11.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.