Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Botswana had a probability of 33.02% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.48%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Botswana win was 0-1 (12.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Uganda in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Uganda.