Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botswana win with a probability of 40.08%. A draw had a probability of 31.2% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 28.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botswana win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.34%) and 2-1 (7.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.43%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.