Friendlies 1

Oct 16, 2023 at 4pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Albufeira

Mozambique
2 - 3
Nigeria

Catamo (6'), Bangal (55')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Moffi (19'), Onyeka (30'), Simon (45+3' pen.)
Osayi-Samuel (89'), Awaziem (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's friendly clash between Mozambique and Nigeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mozambique

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Angola 1-1 Mozambique
Friday, October 13 at 3pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Verde	0	0	0
2	Ghana	0	0	0
3	Egypt	0	0	0
4	Mozambique	0	0	0

Nigeria

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 2-2 Nigeria
Friday, October 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	0	0	0
2	Ivory Coast	0	0	0
3	Nigeria	0	0	0
4	Guinea-Bissau	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Mozambique had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.2%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Mozambique win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
Mozambique	Draw	Nigeria
29.7% ( 0.02)	28.56% ( -0.01)	41.75% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 44.88% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.76% (

0.03)

61.24% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.82% (

0.02)

81.17% (

-0.02)

Mozambique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.15% (

0.03)

36.85% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.36% (

0.03)

73.64% (

-0.03)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.06% (

0.01)

28.94% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.18% (

0.01)

64.82% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Mozambique 29.69%

Nigeria 41.74%

Draw 28.55%

Mozambique	Draw	Nigeria
1-0 @ 10.64% 2-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.31% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.19% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.77% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0) Other @ 1.83% Total : 29.69%	1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 10.66% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.09% ( 0) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.55%	0-1 @ 13.22% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.2% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.39% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.38% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.05% 1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 1.58% Total : 41.74%