Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 63.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Nigeria had a probability of 15.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.56%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Nigeria win it was 0-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.

Result
Portugal	Draw	Nigeria
63.31% ( 0.2)	21.12% ( -0)	15.58% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 49.18% (

-0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.23% (

-0.37)

46.76% (

0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.97% (

-0.35)

69.02% (

0.34)

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.87% (

-0.06)

14.12% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.23% (

-0.11)

41.76% (

0.11)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.27% (

-0.49)

42.73% (

0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.94% (

-0.42)

79.06% (

0.41)

Score Analysis

Portugal 63.3%

Nigeria 15.58%

Draw 21.11%

Portugal	Draw	Nigeria
1-0 @ 11.81% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 11.56% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.41% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.69% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 63.3%	1-1 @ 10.04% 0-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.86% Total : 21.11%	0-1 @ 5.13% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 2.18% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.6% Total : 15.58%