Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 9, 2022 at 5pm UK

Abuja National Stadium

Nigeria
2 - 1
Sierra Leone

Iwobi (16'), Osimhen (41')
Etebo (49'), Aina (73'), (83'), Odinaka Uzoho (86')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Morsay (11')
Bankole Kamara (32'), Sesay (65'), Koroma (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Nigeria and Sierra Leone, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nigeria

Last Six:

Last Game: Nigeria 2-1 Sierra Leone
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Next Game: Mauritius vs. Nigeria
Monday, June 13 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Sierra Leone

Last Six:

Last Game: Nigeria 2-1 Sierra Leone
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Next Game: Sierra Leone vs. Guinea-Bissau
Monday, June 13 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	3	3	7
2	Equatorial Guinea	3	1	6
3	Sierra Leone	3	-1	2
4	Algeria	3	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Sierra Leone win was 0-1 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
Nigeria	Draw	Sierra Leone
40.73% ( -0.96)	28.77% ( 0.17)	30.49% ( 0.79)

Both teams to score 44.61% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.27% (

-0.32)

61.72% (

0.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.46% (

-0.24)

81.53% (

0.24)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.25% (

-0.71)

29.74% (

0.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.19% (

-0.86)

65.81% (

0.86)

Sierra Leone Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.5% (

0.43)

36.5% (

-0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.71% (

0.43)

73.28% (

-0.44)

Score Analysis

Nigeria 40.73%

Sierra Leone 30.49%

Draw 28.76%

Nigeria	Draw	Sierra Leone
1-0 @ 13.16% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.15) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.46% Total : 40.73%	1-1 @ 13.26% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.85% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.76%	0-1 @ 10.94% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.19) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.89% Total : 30.49%