Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 12, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)

Guinea
4 - 1
Ethiopia

Guirassy (18' pen., 38', 45+2'), Cisse (48')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Markneh (53')
Habtamu Aregawi (18'), Markneh (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Guinea and Ethiopia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea 1-2 Tanzania
Tuesday, September 10 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	7	9
2	Cameroon	3	-1	4
3	Guinea	3	-1	4
4	Gambia	3	-5	0

Ethiopia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Ethiopia 0-2 Congo DR
Monday, September 9 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 63.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 13.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.21%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.

Result
Guinea	Draw	Ethiopia
63.7% ( 0.2)	23.19% ( -0.11)	13.1% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 37.78% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.03% (

0.23)

58.97% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.55% (

0.17)

79.44% (

-0.18)

Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.81% (

0.16)

18.19% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.81% (

0.27)

49.18% (

-0.27)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.18% (

0.01)

53.82% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.84% (

87.16% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Guinea 63.69%

Ethiopia 13.1%

Draw 23.19%

Guinea	Draw	Ethiopia
1-0 @ 16.68% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 14.21% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.08% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.61% Total : 63.69%	1-1 @ 10.33% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.79% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 2.73% ( 0) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.19%	0-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.96% Total : 13.1%