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Africa Cup of Nations

Ethiopia national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 9, 2024 at 8pm UK
Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium
Congo DR national football team

Ethiopia
0 - 2
Congo DR


Wolde Waza (17'), Belay (71'), Belye Demte (71')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Bongonda (62'), Mayele (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Ethiopia and Congo DR, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Tanzania 0-0 Ethiopia
Wednesday, September 4 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Congo DR

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo DR 1-0 Guinea
Friday, September 6 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 40.97%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 28.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.54%) and 1-2 (7.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.99%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 1-0 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Congo DR would win this match.

Result
EthiopiaDrawCongo DR
28.19% (0.032 0.03)30.84% (0.044 0.04)40.97% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Both teams to score 38.63% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
31.43% (-0.108 -0.11)68.57% (0.107 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
13.69% (-0.071 -0.07)86.31% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Ethiopia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.76% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)42.24% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.36% (-0.032 -0.03)78.64% (0.028999999999996 0.03)
Congo DR Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.87% (-0.105 -0.11)33.12% (0.104 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.28% (-0.115 -0.11)69.72% (0.114 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Ethiopia 28.18%
    Congo DR 40.96%
    Draw 30.84%
EthiopiaDrawCongo DR
1-0 @ 12.05% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 5.74% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.2% (0.011 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.65% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 1.49% (0.002 0)
3-2 @ 0.91% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.14%
Total : 28.18%
0-0 @ 13.99% (0.06 0.06)
1-1 @ 13.32%
2-2 @ 3.17% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 30.84%
0-1 @ 15.45% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.54% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
1-2 @ 7.36% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-3 @ 3.15% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.71% (-0.015 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.17% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 40.96%

How you voted: Ethiopia vs Congo DR

Ethiopia
47.5%
Draw
10.0%
Congo DR
42.5%
40