Ethiopia vs Lesotho - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 48.52%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 22.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (8.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.01%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ethiopia would win this match.