Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ivory Coast win with a probability of 65.37%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 13.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ivory Coast win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.24%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ivory Coast in this match.