Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Comoros win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Lesotho had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Comoros win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Lesotho win was 1-2 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Comoros would win this match.