Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ivory Coast win with a probability of 61.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Zambia had a probability of 14.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ivory Coast win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.18%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.81%), while for a Zambia win it was 0-1 (6.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ivory Coast would win this match.