Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 60.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Ivory Coast had a probability of 15.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.68%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Ivory Coast win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.