Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 39.42%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 29.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.04%) and 2-1 (7.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.43%), while for a Sierra Leone win it was 0-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.