Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 11, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stade Rene Gaillard

Guinea-Bissau
2 - 1
Sierra Leone

de Lacerda (35'), Franculino (48')
Mane (73'), Martinho Silva (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Bakayoko (6')
Kakay (23'), Samura (43'), Silva (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Sao Tome 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Wednesday, June 14 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Sierra Leone

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-3 Nigeria
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	3	3	7
2	Equatorial Guinea	3	1	6
3	Sierra Leone	3	-1	2
4	Algeria	3	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
Guinea-Bissau	Draw	Sierra Leone
32.37% ( 0.2)	26.67% ( 0.21)	40.96% ( -0.4)

Both teams to score 51.32% (

-0.59)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.43% (

-0.79)

53.57% (

0.79)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.92% (

-0.67)

75.08% (

0.67)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.12% (

-0.26)

30.88% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.84% (

-0.31)

67.16% (

0.32)

Sierra Leone Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.25% (

-0.57)

25.75% (

0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.31% (

-0.78)

60.69% (

0.78)

Score Analysis

Guinea-Bissau 32.37%

Sierra Leone 40.95%

Draw 26.66%

Guinea-Bissau	Draw	Sierra Leone
1-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 7.45% 2-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.04% Total : 32.37%	1-1 @ 12.67% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.66%	0-1 @ 10.78% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 8.6% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 7.32% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.89% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.33% Total : 40.95%