Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 14, 2023 at 5pm UK

Estadio Nacional 24 de Setembro

Sao Tome
0 - 1
Guinea-Bissau

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gano (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Sao Tome & Principe and Guinea-Bissau, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Tome & Principe

Last Game: Sao Tome 0-2 Sierra Leone
Sunday, March 26 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Sao Tome & Principe win was 1-0 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Guinea-Bissau in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Guinea-Bissau.

Result
Sao Tome & Principe	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
26.84% ( 0.66)	26.25% ( -0.09)	46.91% ( -0.58)

Both teams to score 49.67% (

0.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.69% (

0.76)

54.3% (

-0.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.3% (

0.63)

75.69% (

-0.63)

Sao Tome & Principe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.62% (

0.96)

35.38% (

-0.97)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.86% (

0.99)

72.14% (

-0.99)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.86% (

0.06)

23.13% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43% (

0.09)

57% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Sao Tome & Principe 26.84%

Guinea-Bissau 46.91%

Draw 26.24%

Sao Tome & Principe	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.47% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.04% Total : 26.84%	1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.24%	0-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.33) 1-2 @ 9.11% ( 0) 0-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.23) 1-3 @ 4.45% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 4.28% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.82% Total : 46.91%