Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 73.59%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Bermuda had a probability of 9.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.84%) and 3-0 (10.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.04%), while for a Bermuda win it was 0-1 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.