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Africa Cup of Nations

Equatorial Guinea national football team
Africa Cup of Nations | Round of 16
Jan 28, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)
Guinea national football team

Eq Guinea
0 - 1
Guinea

FT(HT: 0-0)
Bayo (90+8')
Jeanvier (41')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Equatorial Guinea and Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Equatorial Guinea

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Eq Guinea 4-0 Ivory Coast
Monday, January 22 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Guinea

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Guinea 0-2 Senegal
Tuesday, January 23 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Guinea had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.82%) and 2-1 (7.24%). The likeliest Guinea win was 0-1 (12.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.

Result
Equatorial GuineaDrawGuinea
38.56% (-1.001 -1)30.71% (0.435 0.43)30.73% (0.566 0.57)
Both teams to score 39.8% (-0.879 -0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
32.39% (-1.133 -1.13)67.61% (1.133 1.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
14.32% (-0.763 -0.76)85.68% (0.764 0.76)
Equatorial Guinea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.9% (-1.229 -1.23)34.1% (1.228 1.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.21% (-1.344 -1.34)70.79% (1.344 1.34)
Guinea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.39% (-0.203 -0.2)39.61% (0.203 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.71% (-0.187 -0.19)76.29% (0.18900000000001 0.19)
Score Analysis
    Equatorial Guinea 38.56%
    Guinea 30.72%
    Draw 30.7%
Equatorial GuineaDrawGuinea
1-0 @ 14.53% (0.12 0.12)
2-0 @ 7.82% (-0.199 -0.2)
2-1 @ 7.24% (-0.226 -0.23)
3-0 @ 2.8% (-0.17 -0.17)
3-1 @ 2.6% (-0.173 -0.17)
3-2 @ 1.2% (-0.087 -0.09)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 38.56%
0-0 @ 13.5% (0.55 0.55)
1-1 @ 13.45% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 3.35% (-0.123 -0.12)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 30.7%
0-1 @ 12.5% (0.44 0.44)
1-2 @ 6.23% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 5.79% (0.176 0.18)
1-3 @ 1.92% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.79% (0.044 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.04% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 1.45%
Total : 30.72%

How you voted: 1st Group A vs 3rd Group C/D/E

1st Group A
78.4%
Draw
16.2%
3rd Group C/D/E
5.4%
37