Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 39.76%. A win for Nigeria had a probability of 31.06% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.84%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Nigeria win was 0-1 (11.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.