Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ivory Coast win with a probability of 42.96%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 27.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ivory Coast win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.87%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 1-0 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.