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Africa Cup of Nations

Ivory Coast national football team
Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage
Jan 13, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)
Guinea-Bissau national football team

Ivory Coast
2 - 0
Guinea-Bissau

Fofana (4'), Krasso (58')
N'Dicka (29'), Sangare (45+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Cassama (44')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Ivory Coast and Guinea-Bissau, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ivory Coast

All competitions
Last Game: Ivory Coast 5-1 Sierra Leone
Saturday, January 6 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions
Last Game: Mali 6-2 Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, January 6 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ivory Coast win with a probability of 70.48%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 11.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ivory Coast win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.75%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.69%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Ivory Coast in this match.

Result
Ivory CoastDrawGuinea-Bissau
70.48% (1.652 1.65)18.27% (-0.913 -0.91)11.25% (-0.741 -0.74)
Both teams to score 46.34% (0.572 0.57)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.89% (2.086 2.09)44.11% (-2.09 -2.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.51% (2.001 2)66.49% (-2.004 -2)
Ivory Coast Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.72% (1.048 1.05)11.28% (-1.052 -1.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.11% (2.242 2.24)35.89% (-2.245 -2.25)
Guinea-Bissau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.23% (0.024999999999999 0.02)47.77% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.94% (0.019000000000002 0.02)83.06% (-0.021999999999991 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Ivory Coast 70.46%
    Guinea-Bissau 11.25%
    Draw 18.27%
Ivory CoastDrawGuinea-Bissau
2-0 @ 12.82% (-0.08 -0.08)
1-0 @ 11.75% (-0.58 -0.58)
2-1 @ 9.48% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
3-0 @ 9.33% (0.324 0.32)
3-1 @ 6.9% (0.245 0.24)
4-0 @ 5.09% (0.377 0.38)
4-1 @ 3.76% (0.282 0.28)
3-2 @ 2.55% (0.092 0.09)
5-0 @ 2.22% (0.248 0.25)
5-1 @ 1.64% (0.185 0.19)
4-2 @ 1.39% (0.105 0.11)
Other @ 3.53%
Total : 70.46%
1-1 @ 8.69% (-0.42 -0.42)
0-0 @ 5.39% (-0.505 -0.51)
2-2 @ 3.5% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 18.27%
0-1 @ 3.98% (-0.37 -0.37)
1-2 @ 3.21% (-0.152 -0.15)
0-2 @ 1.47% (-0.136 -0.14)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 11.25%

How you voted: Ivory Coast vs Guinea-Bissau

Ivory Coast
88.1%
Draw
9.5%
Guinea-Bissau
2.4%
42