Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 45.67%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 24.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (7.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.53%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.