Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritania win with a probability of 45.01%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Burkina Faso had a probability of 23.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mauritania win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.1%), while for a Burkina Faso win it was 0-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.