Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 57.03%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 14.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.86%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.26%), while for a Mauritania win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Congo DR would win this match.