Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritania win with a probability of 44.67%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 25.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mauritania win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.39%) and 2-1 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Madagascar win it was 0-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mauritania would win this match.