Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 39.39%. A draw had a probability of 31.1% and a win for Cape Verde had a probability of 29.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.12%) and 1-2 (7.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.13%), while for a Cape Verde win it was 1-0 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.