Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 40.7%. A win for Togo had a probability of 35.31% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (5.95%). The likeliest Togo win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cape Verde would win this match.