Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 35.89%. A win for Ivory Coast had a probability of 34.97% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.43%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Ivory Coast win was 0-1 (12.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burkina Faso would win this match.