Mali national football team
Friendlies 3
Jan 6, 2024 at 7pm UK
Stade 26 Mars
Guinea-Bissau national football team

Mali
6 - 2
Guinea-Bissau

Niakate (6'), Coulibaly (15'), Doumbia (40'), Dorgeles (68', 85'), Sacko (75')
(33')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Balde (37'), Mane (42')
(45')
Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 3 clash between Mali and Guinea-Bissau.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions
Last Game: Mali 1-1 CAR
Monday, November 20 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions
Last Game: Djibouti 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Monday, November 20 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 67.64%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 10.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.39%) and 3-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.5%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
MaliDrawGuinea-Bissau
67.64% (0.021000000000001 0.02)21.61% (-0.02 -0.02)10.75% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Both teams to score 35.48% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.81% (0.063000000000002 0.06)58.19% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.16% (0.048000000000002 0.05)78.84% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.47% (0.027000000000001 0.03)16.53% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.72% (0.052000000000007 0.05)46.28% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Guinea-Bissau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
42.5% (0.033999999999999 0.03)57.5% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.68% (0.016999999999999 0.02)89.32% (-0.018999999999991 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Mali 67.63%
    Guinea-Bissau 10.75%
    Draw 21.61%
MaliDrawGuinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 17.1% (-0.029999999999998 -0.03)
2-0 @ 15.39% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 9.24% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.52% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.11% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-0 @ 4.16% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.5% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.42% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 67.63%
0-0 @ 9.5% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-1 @ 9.47% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-2 @ 2.36% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 21.61%
0-1 @ 5.26% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 2.62% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-2 @ 1.46% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.41%
Total : 10.75%