Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 82.81%. A draw had a probability of 12.2% and a win for Djibouti had a probability of 5.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (13.1%) and 0-1 (11.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.72%), while for a Djibouti win it was 1-0 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea-Bissau would win this match.