Friendlies 1

Oct 17, 2023 at 4pm UK

King Fahd International Stadium

Saudi Arabia
1 - 3
Mali

Al-Dawsari (58')
Albulayhi (13'), Al Amri (79'), Al-Malki (82')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Doumbia (14'), Traore (42'), Sinayoko (71')
Samassekou (10'), Doumbia (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's friendly clash between Saudi Arabia and Mali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Saudi Arabia

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 2-2 Nigeria
Friday, October 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	3	6
2	Poland	3	0	4
3	Mexico	3	-1	4
4	Saudi Arabia	3	-2	3

Mali

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Mali 1-0 Uganda
Friday, October 13 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Tunisia	0	0	0
2	Mali	0	0	0
3	South Africa	0	0	0
4	Namibia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 54.64%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 19.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.61%) and 1-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Saudi Arabia win it was 1-0 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
Saudi Arabia	Draw	Mali
19.21% ( 0.91)	26.15% ( 0.03)	54.64% ( -0.94)

Both teams to score 41.81% (

1.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.72% (

0.86)

60.27% (

-0.86)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.55% (

0.65)

80.45% (

-0.65)

Saudi Arabia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.77% (

1.59)

46.22% (

-1.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.1% (

1.2)

81.89% (

-1.2)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.75% (

-0.03)

22.24% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.32% (

-0.05)

55.68% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Saudi Arabia 19.21%

Mali 54.63%

Draw 26.14%

Saudi Arabia	Draw	Mali
1-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 4.6% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.43% Total : 19.21%	1-1 @ 11.92% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 10.28% ( -0.33) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.19) Other @ 0.48% Total : 26.14%	0-1 @ 15.45% ( -0.52) 0-2 @ 11.61% ( -0.41) 1-2 @ 8.96% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 5.82% ( -0.21) 1-3 @ 4.49% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 2.19% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.69% Total : 54.63%