Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Jan 18, 2024 at 2pm UK

Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)

Eq Guinea
4 - 2
Guinea-Bissau

Nsue (21', 51', 61'), Miranda (46')
Nlavo (83'), Buyla (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Obiang (37' og.), Correia (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Equatorial Guinea

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Nigeria 1-1 Eq Guinea
Sunday, January 14 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	1	2	3
2	Equatorial Guinea	1	0	1
3	Nigeria	1	0	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	1	-2	0

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Ivory Coast 2-0 Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, January 13 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	1	2	3
2	Equatorial Guinea	1	0	1
3	Nigeria	1	0	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	1	-2	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.18%) and 2-1 (7.88%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Equatorial Guinea would win this match.

Result
Equatorial Guinea	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
40.92% ( -0.02)	29.32% ( -0.08)	29.76% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 42.91% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.31% (

0.3)

63.69% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.03% (

0.21)

82.97% (

-0.21)

Equatorial Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.38% (

0.14)

30.62% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.14% (

0.16)

66.86% (

-0.16)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.85% (

0.25)

38.15% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.08% (

0.24)

74.92% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Equatorial Guinea 40.91%

Guinea-Bissau 29.75%

Draw 29.32%

Equatorial Guinea	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 13.82% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.23% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.11% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.32% Total : 40.91%	1-1 @ 13.32% 0-0 @ 11.68% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.32%	0-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.64% Total : 29.75%